war in iraq
Poll shows majority support U.S. military action if inspectors don't find evidence of banned weapons
Large Majority Believes Saddam Harboring Al Qaeda Members
February 8, 2003
NEW YORK, Feb. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- A 60-percent majority of Americans polled say they would support U.S. military action in Iraq if the U.N. weapons inspectors do not find evidence that Iraq has chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. And 60 percent would support U.S. military forces occupying the country for five years after the fighting stops, the poll shows.
Sixty-nine percent of Americans polled say the evidence that Secretary of State Colin Powell presented to the U.N. Security Council this week was at least somewhat convincing (46% say very; 23% say somewhat) in making the case that Iraq has been hiding banned weapons materials from U.N. inspectors; 62 percent say the evidence that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein poses an immediate danger to the world was at least somewhat convincing (41% say very, 21% say somewhat); and 60 percent say Powell was at least somewhat convincing (35% say very, 25% say somewhat) that Iraq is actively supporting Al Qaeda terrorists, the poll shows.
Fifty-two percent of Americans say the U.S. should give inspectors a month or less to continue looking for banned weapons before taking military action against Iraq: thirty-three percent of those polled say the U.S. should give the U.N. weapons inspectors less than a month; 19 percent say to give them about a month. Two weeks ago, 59 percent said the U.S. should give the inspectors at least "several months" (41 percent said the U.S. should give the inspectors as much time as the inspectors think is necessary. Now just 31 percent say the inspectors should be given as much time as the inspectors think is necessary.)
Large majorities of Americans still approve of the way President Bush is handling policies to deal with the threat posed by Iraq and Saddam. Bush's job approval rating is 61 percent, a six percent increase from the Newsweek Poll of January 23-24 and 60 percent of Americans approve of the way he's handling policies to deal with the threat posed by Iraq and Saddam. A full 70 percent of Americans polled support using military force against Iraq -- a 10-percent jump from the Newsweek Poll two weeks ago.
A full 74 percent of Americans polled believe that Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq is harboring Al Qaeda terrorists and helping them to develop chemical weapons. That number is consistent with the Newsweek Poll taken September 26-27, 2002.
Americans have few illusions about the risk of military action against Iraq. Slightly more than half (53%) of those polled say U.S. military action against Iraq would create serious divisions between the U.S. and its allies. Half (50%) say it's more important for the U.S. to take more time to try to achieve our goals without using military force in Iraq (a decrease from 66 percent of Americans two weeks ago); 46 percent say it's more important to move forward quickly with military action as the only way to effectively deal with Iraq (an increase from 32 percent on Jan. 23-24).
Nonetheless, an 85-percent majority say they'd support U.S. military action against Iraq if the U.S. joined with its major allies and with the full support of the U.N. Security Council, the current poll shows. And just 37 percent approve of military action if the U.S. had to attack alone -- an increase of six percent.
Eighty-six percent of those polled say the attack against Iraq would inspire terrorist attacks against American citizens; 76 percent say Iraq would retaliate by using biological or chemical weapons against the U.S. and 73 percent say Iraq would retaliate by using such weapons against Israel, the poll shows.
If the U.S. does not take military action against Iraq, 83 percent of those polled say Saddam would then be instrumental in helping Al Qaeda terrorists carry out future attacks against the United States and 75 percent say Iraq would use weapons of mass destruction against a neighboring country, the poll shows.
This Newsweek Poll is part of the February 17 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, February 10). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,003 adults aged 18 and older on February 6-7, 2003. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Newsweek Poll
Iraq After Powell's Presentation
Princeton Survey Research Associates
Final Topline Results
(2/8/03)
N = 1,003 adults, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 3
Interviewing dates: 2/6-7/03
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
492 Men (plus or minus 5)
511 Women (plus or minus 5)
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
his job as president?
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 61 31 8 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 55 38 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/24-25/02) 61 29 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/26-27/02) 65 27 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(7/18-19/02) 65 25 10 =100
(7/11-12/02) 68 22 10 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(5/16-17/02) 73 20 7 =100
(4/25-26/02) 71 16 13 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(12/6-7/01) 82 12 6 =100
(11/29-30/01) 85 9 6 =100
(11/15-16/01) 85 10 5 =100
(11/8-9/01) 85 8 7 =100
(11/1-2/01) 85 11 4 =100
(10/25-26/01) 85 10 5 =100
(10/18-19/01) 88 8 4 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(10/4-5/01) 84 11 5 =100
(9/27-28/01) 86 9 5 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01)** 51 34 15 =100
(6/13-17/01) 50 33 17 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(5/3-4/01) 57 30 13 =100
(4/12-13/01) 57 28 15 =100
(3/15-16/01) 55 30 15 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
(2/8-9/01) 52 25 23 =100
**NOTE: Bush approval trend for August-September 2001 from Pew Research
Center.
2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
policies to deal with the threat posed by Iraq and its leader Saddam
Hussein?
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 60 33 7 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 59 34 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 53 38 9 =100
(10/10-11/02) 58 34 8 =100
(9/26/27/02) 60 30 10 =100
(9/12-13/02) 60 30 10 =100
3. In the fight against terrorism, the Bush Administration has talked
about using military force against Saddam Hussein and his military in
Iraq. Would you support using military force against Iraq, or not?
Yes No DK
Current Total 70 25 5 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 60 35 5 =100
(1/16-17/03) 63 31 6 =100
(10/24-25/02) 64 29 7 =100
(10/11-12/02) 66 26 8 =100
(9/26-27/02) 63 29 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 67 26 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 62 31 7 =100
(4/25-26/02) 68 24 8 =100
(12/13-14/01) 78 15 7 =100
(10/11-12/01) 81 15 4 =100
4. Please tell me whether or not you would support the following kinds
of U.S. military action against Iraq and Saddam Hussein. (First,)
what about...(READ ITEMS IN ORDER)? (Would you support this kind of
military action or not?)
a. Using air strikes against Iraq without any troops on the ground
Yes No DK
Current Total 68 25 7 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 66 28 6 =100
(1/16-17/03) 69 25 6 =100
(10/10-11/02) 68 25 7 =100
(9/26-27/02) 67 27 6 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 24 6 =100
(8/28-29/02) 63 30 7 =100
(11/29-30/01) 68 23 9 =100
b. Sending in commandos or special forces to capture Saddam Hussein or
work with local anti-Saddam forces
Current Total 77 19 4 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 71 24 5 =100
(1/16-17/03) 72 23 5 =100
(10/10-11/02) 70 21 9 =100
(9/26-27/02) 72 21 6 =100
(9/12-13/02) 76 19 5 =100
(8/28-29/02) 70 23 7 =100
(11/29-30/01) 74 19 7 =100
c. Sending in large numbers of U.S. ground troops to ensure control of
the country
Current Total 58 35 7 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 49 45 6 =100
(1/16-17/03) 51 41 8 =100
(10/10-11/02) 48 42 10 =100
(9/26-27/02) 50 42 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 55 37 8 =100
(8/28-29/02) 49 45 6 =100
(11/29-30/01) 56 40 4 =100
5. Right now, which ONE of the following do you think is more important
for the United States ... (READ)
Current 1/23-24/03 1/16-17/03
46 To move forward QUICKLY with military 32 35
action as the only way to effectively
deal with Iraq
50 To take more time to try to achieve our 66 60
goals in Iraq WITHOUT using military force
4 Don't know 2 5
100 100 100
6. Please tell me if you would support or oppose U.S. military action
against Iraq in each of the following circumstances. (First,) what
if ... (INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)? (Would you support or oppose
U.S. military action in this circumstance?)
Yes No DK
a. The United States JOINED TOGETHER with its major allies to attack
Iraq, with the FULL SUPPORT of the United Nations Security Council
Current Total 85 12 3 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 81 15 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 81 14 5 =100
(1/3-6/03) 83 13 4 =100
b. The United States and ONE OR TWO of its major allies attacked Iraq,
WITHOUT the support of the United Nations
Current Total 50 44 6 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 40 53 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 39 52 9 =100
(1/3-6/03) 47 45 8 =100
c. The United States ACTED ALONE in attacking Iraq, WITHOUT the support
of the United Nations
Current Total 37 59 4 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 31 65 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 31 63 6 =100
(1/3-6/03) 34 59 7 =100
NOTE: Trend from 1/3-6/03 PSRA survey for Knight-Ridder newspapers.
7. What if taking military action against Iraq means keeping U.S.
military forces in Iraq for FIVE YEARS after the fighting stops to
help maintain order and establish a new government -- would you
support or oppose U.S. military action?
Current 1/3-6/03
60 Would support 66
33 Would oppose 26
7 Don't know 7
100 100
NOTE: Trend from PSRA survey for Knight-Ridder newspapers. Results based
on a split form sample of 603 interviews.
8. What if U.N. weapons inspectors do NOT find evidence that Iraq has
chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons, but the Bush Administration
says its intelligence reports indicate that Iraq DOES have such
weapons. Would you support or oppose U.S. military action in this
circumstance?
Current 1/23-24/03 1/16-17/03
60 Would support 52 54
34 Would oppose 41 39
6 Don't know 7 7
100 100 100
9. How much more time, if any, do you think the United States should give
the U.N. weapons inspectors to continue looking for banned weapons in
Iraq BEFORE taking any kind of military action...(READ)
Current 1/23-24/03
33 Less than a month 20
19 About a month 16
12 Several months 16
3 A full year 2
31 As much time as the U.N. weapons 41
inspectors think is necessary
2 Don't know 5
100 100
10. From what you've seen or heard in the news, do you believe that
Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq is harboring Al Qaeda terrorists and
helping them to develop chemical weapons, or not?
Current 9/26-27/02
74 Yes, harboring/helping Al Qaeda 75
13 No 12
13 Don't know 13
100 100
11. Have you seen, heard, or read anything about Secretary of State Colin
Powell's presentation to the United Nations this week making the
case for possible war to disarm Iraq?
77 Yes
22 No
1 Don't know
100
12. In your opinion, how convincing is the evidence that Powell presented
in making the case that...(INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE): very
convincing, somewhat convincing, not too convincing, or not at all
convincing?
V - Very convincing
SW - Somewhat convincing
NA - Not aware of Powell's presentation
V SW Not too Not at all NA DK
a. Iraq has been hiding banned weapons materials from U.N. inspectors
Current Total 46 23 4 2 23 2 =100
b. Iraq is actively supporting Al Qaeda terrorists
Current Total 35 25 8 4 23 5 =100
c. Saddam Hussein poses an immediate danger to the world
Current Total 41 21 8 4 23 3 =100
13. If the United States does take military action against Iraq, how do
you think you would react when first hearing the news? Do you think
you would feel... (INSERT-READ AND RANDOMIZE), or not?
Yes No DK
a. Excited
Current Total 17 80 3 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 16 81 3 =100
(1/16-17/03) 19 78 3 =100
Men 23 73 4 =100
Women 12 85 3 =100
b. Pleased
Current Total 33 61 6 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 29 66 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 30 65 5 =100
Men 42 54 4 =100
Women 26 67 7 =100
c. Relieved
Current Total 43 51 6 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 37 59 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 36 59 5 =100
Men 51 43 6 =100
Women 36 58 6 =100
d. Disappointed
Current Total 34 62 4 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 43 55 2 =100
(1/16-17/03) 38 58 4 =100
Men 29 67 4 =100
Women 39 56 5 =100
e. Upset
Current Total 47 50 3 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 51 45 2 =100
(1/16-17/03) 50 47 3 =100
Men 30 66 4 =100
Women 62 36 2 =100
Yes No DK
f. Angry
Current Total 23 73 4 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 30 67 3 =100
(1/16-17/03) 28 68 4 =100
Men 19 78 3 =100
Women 27 68 5 =100
g. Afraid
Current Total 49 48 3 =100
Trends-Total
(1/23-24/03) 49 50 1 =100
(1/16-17/03) 47 51 2 =100
Men 30 67 3 =100
Women 68 30 2 =100
14. If the United States takes military action against Iraq, do you
think...(INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)?
Yes No DK
a. It would create serious divisions between the U.S. and its allies
Current Total 53 38 9 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 60 32 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 54 37 9 =100
(9/12-13/02) 55 34 11 =100
(2/19-20/98) 46 43 11 =100
(11/97) 45 47 8 =100
b. It would cause serious problems for the U.S. throughout the Arab world
Current Total 71 22 7 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 72 19 6 =100
(1/16-17/03) 74 20 6 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 22 8 =100
(2/19-20/98) 55 35 10 =100
c. Iraq would retaliate by using biological or chemical weapons against
Israel*
Current Total 73 13 14 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 71 16 13 =100
(1/16-17/03) 68 16 16 =100
(9/12-13/02) 72 16 12 =100
(2/19-20/98) 67 22 11 =100
Yes No DK
d. Iraq would retaliate by using biological or chemical weapons against
the United States
Current Total 76 16 8 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 72 20 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 71 20 9 =100
(9/12-13/02) 69 24 7 =100
(2/19-20/98) 60 32 8 =100
e. It would inspire terrorist attacks against American citizens**
Current Total 86 10 4 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 83 13 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 82 12 6 =100
(9/12-13/02) 76 17 7 =100
(2/19-20/98) 75 18 7 =100
f. It would start a peace or protest movement like the one during the
time of the Vietnam War
Current Total 62 28 10 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 66 25 9 =100
(1/16-17/03) 62 26 12 =100
g. It would lead to reinstatement of a military draft in this country
Current Total 42 46 12 =100
Trends
(1/23/24/03) 51 42 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 50 40 10 =100
* February 1998 trend wording read " ... against Israel or another U.S.
ally."
** February 1998 trend wording read " ... terrorist acts against American
citizens."
15. If the U.S. takes military action against Iraq, how likely do you
think it is that... (INSERT ITEMS--IN ORDER)? (Is it very likely,
somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?)
V SW Not too Not at all DK
a. Many U.S. pilots or other military personnel will be killed or taken
prisoner*
Current Total 38 37 16 5 4 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 38 40 15 4 3 =100
(1/16-17/03) 36 39 16 4 5 =100
(9/12-13/02) 37 41 15 3 4 =100
(2/19-20/98) 30 40 19 7 4 =100
b. Hundreds of Iraqi civilians will be killed or injured
Current Total 68 23 5 1 3 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 70 22 4 1 3 =100
(1/16-17/03) 65 27 3 1 4 =100
(9/12-13/02) 64 26 5 2 3 =100
(2/19-20/98) 67 23 4 2 4 =100
c. Thousands of Iraqi civilians will be killed or injured
Current Total 54 25 12 4 5 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 57 24 11 4 4 =100
(1/16-17/03) 55 26 12 2 5 =100
(9/12-13/02) 55 25 12 3 5 =100
(2/19-20/98) 58 24 8 4 6 =100
* February 1998 trend wording read "Many U.S. pilots or support personnel
... "
16. What if the U.S. does NOT take military action against Iraq? If
there is no U.S. military action, do you think... (INSERT ITEMS--IN
ORDER)?
Yes No DK
a. Iraq would eventually use weapons of mass destruction against a
neighboring country
Current Total 75 14 11 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 70 20 10 =100
(1/16-17/03) 71 18 11 =100
(9/12-13/02) 75 16 9 =100
(2/19-20/98) 80 13 7 =100
b. Saddam Hussein would be instrumental in helping Al Qaeda terrorists
carry out future attacks against the United states
Current Total 83 9 8 =100
Trends
(1/23-24/03) 78 14 8 =100
(1/16-17/03) 82 12 6 =100
(9/12-13/02) 85 9 6 =100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
Source: ">Newsweek
war in iraq